Central New Mexico Weather: 2/9/19

Yesterday was sunny, cool and a little breezy.

This morning has been partly sunny, cool and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a high temperature of 51 F.  The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 29 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, becoming west after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a high temperature of 52 F.   The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 30 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, becoming west after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 48 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 26 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.

The visible satellite image shows light, high clouds over most of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere, with no saturated layers.  There was 0.12 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 758 m.  There was a moderate, thick thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 3.0 C/km.  The hodograph shows the low-level shear is 20 kts (due mostly to directional changes), and the deep layer shear is 66 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

 

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and low humidity this morning.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under high pressure, with a moderate pressure gradient in the southern half of the state.  The RAP shows that this trend will continue for the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong southwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity forecasts very little precipitation.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak in mid 50s today.

The HRRR shows that a weak dryline will form and trace I-25 through central New Mexico.  It’s dry on both sides, but goes from a dewpoint of 10 F in Gallup to a dewpoint of 20 F in Albuquerque.

The HRRR shows gusty winds are possible this afternoon, particularly in the western third of the state.

The HRRR shows that the skies are expected to become overcast by mid-afternoon.

Today will be slightly warmer than yesterday, and maybe even warmer still tomorrow.  With the winds, dry temperatures and warmer day, I’m surprised the fire risk isn’t a little higher in western New Mexico.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Advertisements

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.