Central New Mexico Weather: 2/6/19

Yesterday was partly sunny and mild.  It was another beautiful day.

This morning has been mostly sunny, with a few scattered, high clouds, cool and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 50 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-20 mph, becoming southwest at 20-30 mph, gusting to 45 mph.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 22 F.  The winds will be from the west at 15-25 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 56 F.   The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, increasing to 20-25 mph in the afternoon, and gusting to 40 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 24 F.  The winds will be from the west at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers, and a high temperature of 49 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 20-25 mph, increasing to 30-35 mph in the afternoon, gusting to 45 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 18 F.  The winds will be from the west at 20-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph.

The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a winter storm system that will enter the Four Corners region today.  A strong cold front, with a sharp temperature drop and gusty winds will affect the entire state over the next 24 hours.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic shows mostly wind-related products, with a few winter weather products as well.

The visible satellite image shows scattered clouds over the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere, with no saturated layers.  There was 0.22 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 874 m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.9 C/km.  The hodograph shows the low-level shear is 31 kts (due mostly to directional changes), and the deep layer shear is 80 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and moderate humidity this morning.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows strong low pressure over the Rocky Mountains, but no strong pressure gradient over the state.  Interestingly enough, the pressure will increase over Colorado throughout the next six hours.  Our pressure will end up staying constant for the next six hours, according to the RAP.  At least until the cold front arrives (later than six hours out).

The NAM 250 mb chart shows very strong, southwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows strong Cold Air Advection (CAA) approaching from the west associated with the winter storm.  Notice the sharp temperature gradient and that the winds are blowing from cold to warm.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity forecasts scattered showers today.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 18 Z, reaching into the upper 40s F.  This is earlier than usual, due to the passing cold front.

The HRRR shows that the dewpoints are expected to go from the teens to the single digits, back into the teens today.

The HRRR shows strong, gusty winds are possible all day.

The HRRR shows that scattered clouds are likely throughout the next 24 hours.

Today’s key word will be “wind”.   Central New Mexico will see gusty, potentially damaging winds all day today.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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