Central New Mexico Weather: 1/21/19

Yesterday was sunny, mild and still.  I did go out for a very pleasant run.  I did not go out and see the eclipse, however.

This morning has been cold, partly cloudy and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 57 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 27 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-20 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly cloudy morning, becoming sunny by the afternoon, with a high temperature of 64 F.   The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, increasing to 20-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy with a low temperature of 30 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day with a high temperature of 57 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 15-20 mph, increasing to 25-35 mph, and gusting to 45 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 25 F.  The winds will be from the west at 20-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued High Wind Warnings for a good part of New Mexico today.  There is also a Winter Weather Advisory for a few of the northern counties.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has also issued a Critical Fire Weather risk for the southern part of the state, due to the high winds this afternoon.

The visible satellite imagery shows high clouds over most of the state today.  These clouds are following the jetstream, and are strung out from southwest to northeast.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere.  There was 0.21 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1016 m.  There was a large thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 3.1 C/km.  The hodograph shows that there was 31 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 78 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows that we are under no strong pressure system, but we are under a moderate pressure gradient.  The RAP shows a lee-side low is expected to intensify over eastern Colorado, strengthening our pressure gradient.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong southwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity forecasts very little chance of precipitation today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the low 60s F.

The HRRR shows that the the dewpoints will only reach the mid 20s F.  With the exception of one wave of moisture, the dewpoints will be in the upper 10s F.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are likely over most of the state today.

The HRRR shows that there will be a few clouds off and on today.

Today will be windy.  That will be the defining, noticeable feature of today’s weather.  It has not yet warmed up, so I have not been out for a run.  However, if the wind kicks up before the temperatures rise, I probably won’t go for a run.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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