Central New Mexico Weather: 1/11/19

Yesterday was mostly cloudy, cool and still.  In the evening, it began to rain, making everything soggy this morning.

This morning has been foggy, rainy, cool, and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) mostly cloudy day with a 40% chance of scattered showers and a high temperature of 44 F.  Winds will be from the northwest at 5-15 mph.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 26 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a foggy morning, with an 80% chance of snow showers (no accumulation), becoming partly sunny, with a high temperature of 50 F.   The winds will be from the northwest at 5-15 mph.  Tonight will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 25 F.  The winds will be northwest at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a foggy morning, with a 30% chance of rain and snow showers (no accumulation), becoming partly sunny, with a high temperature of 44 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 10-20 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 24 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the Rio Grande River Valley until 9 AM.  There is also a Hazardous Weather Outlook in place.  While the rain is expected to stop, another winter storm is expected to pass through tomorrow night and early Sunday morning.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.  The enhanced infrared imagery shows the thicker clouds, and thus the precipitation, are moving east into the Texas Panhandle.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a saturated atmosphere below 500 mb.  There was 0.48 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 13 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.4 C/km.  The hodograph shows that there was 21 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 52 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are cloudy (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients this morning.  The RAP shows none are expected to develop in the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light zonal flow over the state today, as the trough passes overhead.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no significant thermal advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows some precipitation is possible today.  The form of this precipitation is mostly rain, though snow will be likely at higher elevations and in the northern third of the state.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the upper 40s F.

The HRRR shows that the the dewpoints will reach the upper 30s F.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that skies will clear this evening, but only as a the space between winter storms.

We are in a brutal pattern, with a winter storm every weekend.  Hopefully, all of this moisture will help alleviate the drought in parts of the state, and maybe even save a few of my trees.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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