Central New Mexico Weather: 1/10/19

Yesterday was mostly cloudy, cool and still.

This morning has been partly sunny, cold, and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day with a high temperature of 48 F.  Winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming calm in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of rain and snow showers (< 0.5″), and a low temperature of 31 F.  The winds will be calm, but then westerly at 5 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 20% chance of showers and a high temperature of 48 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph.  Tonight will be cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and a low temperature of 32 F.  The winds will be northwest at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and a high temperature of 47 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5 mph, becoming east at 5 mph by this afternoon.  This evening will be cloudy, with a 50% chance of snow showers (<0.5″) and a low temperature of 31 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued  Hazardous Weather Outlook for their entire warning area concerning some snow potential this afternoon.  There is plenty of moisture, and cool enough temperatures for mountain snow.  In the Albuquerque metro area, conditions could become icy.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.  The enhanced infrared imagery shows thicker clouds moving into the state from the southwest.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a much damper atmosphere, as compared to the last few days.  There was 0.41 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 429 m.  There was a thick thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 2.7 C/km.  The hodograph shows that there was 11 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 50 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows that we are under high pressure today, though there are no strong pressure gradients.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop significantly with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected;

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, southwesterly flow over the state today as a trough approaches the state from the west.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no significant thermal advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows some precipitation is possible today.  The form of this precipitation is mostly rain, though snow will be likely at higher elevations and in the northern third of the state.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the low 50s F.

The HRRR shows that the the dewpoints will rise throughout the day, reaching the low 30s F by this afternoon and evening.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that skies will begin to cloud up in the early afternoon.

There is a chance of snow today.  I don’t think it will be a major snow event, as all of the critical thicknesses are much farther north.  However, roads may get slick.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Winter Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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