Today, we are lingering around the Tampa metro area.
We somehow ended up in an Enhanced Risk for severe weather ring, according to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC):
Associated with this risk is a 10% Tornado Threat Ring:
…and a Tornado Watch:
Having said all of that, the threat will be concentrated along a squall line that has already moved through the area.
It has been a rainy mess all morning. I debated getting up and chasing, but I didn’t, based on the linear nature, escaping the Tampa metro area, and other vacation logistics.
The NWS in Tampa, FL, forecasts (for Clearwater, FL), a cloudy day, with a 100% chance of thunderstorms (some of which will be severe), and a high temperature of 72 F. The winds will be from the south at 18-22 mph, gusting to 29 mph.
The NWS in Tampa, FL, forecasts (for Clearwater, FL) a mostly cloudy night with an 60% chance of showers, and a low temperature of 58 F. Winds will be light from the southwest at 15-22 mph, increasing to 23-28 mph, and gusting to 37 mph after midnight.
I took a screen shot of all of the hazards listed by the NWS for my location:
The visible satellite imagery shows heavy cloud cover over Florida this morning. I’m not seeing any particularly strong cells in the squall line, based on satellite imagery.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are currently cloudy (according to the sensors) over our route. Winds are moderate and from the south.
The surface pressure chart shows that there is a low pressure system that will push through Georgia this afternoon. The squall line that is giving us so much grief is the cold front from this mid-latitude cyclone.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows rain over most of the state by this afternoon. The HRRR seems to show things condensing into several lines. I don’t think it is handling the widespread moisture well.
We will see our high temperatures in a few hours now. Temperatures will reach into the low-70s F.
The HRRR supercell potential will hit a maximum later this afternoon, from Orlando to Cocoa Beach, FL.
The HRRR Significant Tornado Parameter will hit a peak about the same time. There is also a little peak about ten miles south of my current location, so I’ll take a look at that.
I am thinking the HRRR is overestimating the severe threat a little bit. The strange step change from current conditions to HRRR’s much more organized lines of convection is suspect. If we really did get those lines of convection, I would believe the high supercell and sig tor threats. It very well could do this, so I will keep my eyes open.
Thank you for reading my post.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD