Central New Mexico Weather: 12/5/18

Yesterday was cool, sunny and still

This morning has been cold, overcast and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 49 F.  Winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 27 F.  Winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph, becoming northeast by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a  high temperature of 52 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 29 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 50 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with low temperature of 29 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Special Weather Statement concerning an approaching winter storm.  Sucks to be you, I fly to San Diego tomorrow, and will hopefully avoid it.

The visible satellite imagery shows thin clouds over most of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere with no nearly-saturated layers.  There was 0.23 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 882 m.  There was a very large, thick thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 1.3 C/km.  The hodograph shows that there was 23 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 56 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are mostly clear (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows high pressure with a moderate pressure gradient over the state today.  The RAP shows that pressure will drop with diurnal heating, and the gradient will weaken over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that precipitation is unlikely.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the low 50s F.

The HRRR shows that the dewpoints will drop into the single digits today.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts in the Rio Grande River Valley are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that the skies will remain cloudy all day and into the evening.

Today is the calm before the winter storm.  Tomorrow, a back door cold front, plus a potent Pacific storm will move into the area, bringing winter weather to most of the state.  Today, however, will be cool and cloudy with light winds.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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