Central New Mexico Weather: 12/1/18

Yesterday was cool, windy, and partly cloudy.

This morning has been cool, breezy, cloudy and partly cloudy.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 48 F.  Winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of snow (<0.5″), and a low temperature of 30 F.  Winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a  high temperature of 54 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 33 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 46 F.  The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of snow showers and a low temperature of 28 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a potent winter storm.  The winter storm will drop a few inches of snow over the western part of the state, while increasing wind speeds over the eastern part, particularly near the central mountain chain.  They have issued several Winter Storm Watches and Wind Advisories with this system, as shown in the Watches and Warnings graphic shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies over the state today.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows nearly-saturated conditions below 550 mb.  There was 0.27 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 540 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.6 C/km.  The hodograph shows that there was 35 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 90 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are mostly clear (according to the sensors), and the winds are moderate and westerly.

The surface pressure chart shows that the pressure is low with a sharp gradient across the eastern part of the state.  The RAP shows that this trend will continue for at least the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong, zonal to northwesterly flow, as a new trough digs southward.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows precipitation is unlikely until the very early morning hours tomorrow.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 21 Z, reaching into the low 50s F.

The HRRR shows that the dewpoints will only reach into the low 20s F today.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are possible for most of the state this afternoon and evening.

The HRRR shows that the skies are expected to lighten a bit in the afternoon, with spottier cloud coverage.

Today will continue to be cool and windy.  Tonight, and early tomorrow morning, there is the possibility of snow in Rio Rancho and at higher elevations.

I will be watching this system closely, though I am admittedly distracted by the Skywarn Recognition Day, which I will post about later this week.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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