Central and Southeastern New Mexico Weather: 11/18/18

Joey, JoAnna and I went to Roswell and Carlsbad for Joey’s birthday, but we will be driving back to Rio Rancho today.

Yesterday was mild, sunny and still.  There was a some iridescent clouds and a neat sunset over Carlsbad.

This morning has been cold, cloudy and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Roswell, NM), a cloudy day, becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon, with a high temperature of 44 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 29 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM), a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 57 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 29 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM), a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 54 F.  The winds will be calm, becoming west at 5 mph in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 28 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning freezing fog just east of the central mountain chain.  This will clear up in the late morning hours.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows dense clouds and fog over the eastern half of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere with no saturated layers.  There was 0.21 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 3185 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.9 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 16 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 40 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear in the west, and cloudy in the east (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows Cold Air Advection (CAA) from yesterday’s back door cold front has weakened.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows precipitation is unlikely.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the central part of the state will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the mid 50s F.

HRRR shows that the the dewpoints will remain low, reaching into the low 20s F.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that clouds will mix out throughout the day.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be colder, and cloudy in the morning, clearing off by the evening.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.