Southeastern New Mexico Weather: 11/17/18

Joey, JoAnna and I went to Roswell and Carlsbad for Joey’s birthday, so I will post from Roswell again today.

Yesterday was mild, sunny and still.  There was a nice sunset over Carlsbad Caverns yesterday evening.

This morning has been cold, clear and a little breezy.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Roswell, NM), a sunny day, with a high temperature of 58 F.  The winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 30 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Midland/Odessa, TX, forecasts (for Carlsbad, NM), a sunny day, with a high temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-15 mph.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 29 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning an approaching backdoor cold front from the northeast.  This will drop temperatures 10-15 degrees over the eastern part of the state.

The visible satellite imagery shows no clouds over the state this morning, so this chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere with no saturated layers.  There was 0.23 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1933 m.  There was a large and thick thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 2.3 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 16 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 28 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows Cold Air Advection (CAA) from the northeast, in the form of a backdoor cold front.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows precipitation is unlikely.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the southeastern part of the state will peak around 21 Z, reaching into the mid 50s F.  The temperature drops earlier in the day, thanks to the CAA.

HRRR shows that the the dewpoints will remain low, reaching into the upper 20s F.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that clouds are unlikely through this evening.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

 

Today will be sunny, a bit breezy, and will cool off in the afternoon.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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