Central New Mexico Weather: 11/12/18

Yesterday was cool, breezy, and a little rainy in the evening.  There was a nice display of clouds over the mountains at sunset:

This morning has been cloudy, cold, and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a cloudy morning, becoming a mostly sunny day, with a 40% chance of snow (< 0.5″) in the morning, and a high temperature of 37 F.  The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph.  Tonight will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 16 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5 mph, becoming calm by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a cloudy morning, becoming a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 37 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 15 mph.  Tonight will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 18 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming northwest by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly cloudy morning, becoming a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of snow (~1″), and a high temperature of 28 F.  The winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 14 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph, becoming northwest by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a several Winter Storm Watches and Winter Storm Warnings east of the central mountain chain.  Temperatures will reach record cold, or nearly record cold for this date.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows clouds over the eastern 2/3 of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly saturated layer from 700 mb to 550 mb.  There was 0.26 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 550 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.6 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 14 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 86 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are cloudy (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows high pressure over the state, and a strong pressure gradient to the south.  This will only intensify, with high pressure reaching 1042 mb in the next six hours, according to the RAP.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong northerly flow over the state as a trough passes through the area.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows strong Cold Air Advection (CAA) over the state this afternoon and evening.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that snow showers will decrease throughout the morning.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the mid 30s F.

HRRR shows that the the dewpoints will remain low, reaching only into the low teens F.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that the skies will clear up by the afternoon.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that the 10:1 Ratio Method and the Kuchera Method only show trace amounts of snow for the rest of this event.  These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The NAM critical thicknesses will almost all be far enough south for snow, and the question will be how much moisture is present.

The snow is about finished, but the cold temperatures are here for a few more days.  I put my faucet covers on the outdoor faucets, and will likely wear a flannel shirt all day today under my coat.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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