Central New Mexico Weather: 11/8/18

Yesterday was mostly sunny, mild and still.  It was a pleasant day all day again.

This morning has been clear, cold, and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 58 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 32 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 66 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 37 F.  The winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming north in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 31 F.  The winds will be from the north at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning colder, foggier conditions in the northeastern corner of the state this morning.  A backdoor cold front has passed through this corner, dropping the temperatures and condensing moisture into fog and drizzle.  A stronger backdoor cold front is expected in the next 24 hours.

The visible satellite imagery shows fog over the eastern part of the state this morning, but no clouds over the Albuquerque Metro area.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere, with no saturated layers.  There was 0.33 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 420 m.  There was a moderate inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.4 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 18 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 66 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear (according to the sensors), except in the eastern part of the state, and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems, with a slight pressure gradient over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that the gradient will persist, but no strong pressure systems are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong zonal flow over the state.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows where the backdoor cold front (Cold Air Advection, CAA) has produced a sharp temperature gradient through New Mexico.  The winds will blow strongly across this gradient this evening.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that showers and thunderstorms are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 21 Z, reaching into the upper 50s F.

c2

HRRR shows that the the dewpoints will drop into the negative numbers today.  Notice the sharp dryline running just east of the central mountain chain.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that skies will grow cloudier, growing from the east near the backdoor cold front.  By this evening, the eastern part of the state is expected to be under cloudy skies.

Today will be another pleasant autumn day in central New Mexico.  It will be a little cooler than yesterday, and will cloud up in the evening.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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