Central New Mexico Weather: 11/2/18

Yesterday was sunny, cool and still.  It never really clouded up, in spite of the HRRR’s predictions.

This morning has been mostly clear, cool, and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature near 64 F.  Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 40 F.  Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a  high temperature of 65.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 42 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5 mph, becoming west after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the north at 10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 38 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.

The visible satellite imagery shows no clouds over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere with no saturated layers.  There was 0.30 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 633 m.  There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 3.2 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 18 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 45 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning, and the RAP shows that none are expected to develop in the next 6 hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate northerly flow as a ridge approaches from our west.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no significant thermal advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that showers and thunderstorms are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the mid 60s F.

The HRRR shows that the the dewpoints will remain low today, only reaching into the upper 20s F.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are not very likely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that skies will become cloudy over the Rio Grande River Valley by the early morning hours.

I’m off to a late start with my predictions today, due to a smashing headache first thing in the morning.  Even so, today looks to be a sunny, mild day, great for physical activity, but a little chilly to sit outside.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.