Central New Mexico Weather: 10/19/18

Yesterday was cool, cloudy, and still.  The clouds lightened a little in the late afternoon, but there was some fog in the evening.

This morning has been sunny, cool, and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature near 69 F.  Winds will be from the north at 5 mph.  Tonight will be clear, with a low temperature of 42 F.  Winds will be from the east at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 67 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 45 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 58 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 40 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5 mph.

The visible satellite imagery shows that most of the clouds have moved out of the Albuquerque Metro area, though there are still clouds over the southern and eastern parts of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly saturated layer around 725 mb.  There was 0.39 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was 2 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -19 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 552 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.8 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 4 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 54 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are becoming clear (as compared to yesterday), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows high pressure over the state this morning, with no strong pressure gradient.  The RAP shows that this will persist throughout at least the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate southwesterly flow as a trough enters the state from the west.  There is an upper-level low in the base of this trough that just keeps hovering over southwestern Utah.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no significant thermal advection, as the cold air is already here.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity is not showing any precipitation over the Rio Grande River Valley today.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 23 Z, reaching into the low 60s F.

The HRRR shows that the Albuquerque Metro will be dry, with a dryline running through the state west to east.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are not very likely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that skies will be clear by this afternoon.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

 

Today is a great day for 49ers here at NMT.  The weather will be mild, sunny and still.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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