Central New Mexico Weather: 10/11/18

Yesterday was mostly sunny, mild and still.

This morning, the weather is mostly clear, cool, and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature near 69 F.  Winds will be from the east at 5-15 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 47 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature near 73 F.  Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 49 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature near 66 F.  Winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 44 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Special Weather Statement concerning the potential for SNOW on Sunday and Sunday night.  The northern half of the state could see accumulating snow, and even some is possible in Rio Rancho.

The visible satellite imagery shows clouds almost everywhere but Socorro.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly saturated layer at 600 mb.   There was 0.48 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1018 m.  There was a large thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.8 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 4 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 59 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures and moderately high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are mostly clear, and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients this morning.  The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows scattered precipitation this afternoon and evening.  Coverage will be very limited, so the image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 21 Z, reaching into the low 70s F.

The HRRR shows that the atmosphere will be relatively dry.  There is a sharp dryline that runs through the eastern third of the state.

The HRRR shows a few stronger gusts are possible this afternoon.

The HRRR shows that skies will become overcast by the late afternoon hours.

Today will cloud up, and some rain is possible.

I am likely taking a trip to Denver this weekend, perhaps against better advice.  We’ll see if there is any snow there, but I start posting about it later this weekend.

Hurricane Michael snuck up on my, and I didn’t post about it at all.  I’m slipping!

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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