Central New Mexico Weather: 10/9/18

Yesterday was mostly sunny, cool and still.  I wore a sweatshirt for the first time this fall.

This morning, the weather is mostly cloudy, cool, and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a  30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature near 63 F.  Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 40 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 42 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 58 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 37 F.  The winds will be from the west 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued several freeze watches for this evening.  Some accumulating snow is possible above 8500′, in the northern and western parts of the state.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery overcast skies the eastern part of the state, with scattered cloud cover in the central and western parts.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly-saturated atmosphere below 500 mb.   There was 0.50 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was 183 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -23 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 529 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.0 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 1 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 42 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to a mix of speed and directional changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies have some clouds and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows low pressure and no strong pressure gradient over the state today.  The RAP shows that the low will persist, and the gradient is not expected to intensify.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows zonal flow, due to being at the bottom of the trough.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows a few storms firing in the afternoon.  Coverage will be sparse and isolated.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 21 Z, reaching into the upper 50s F.

The HRRR shows that the atmosphere will remain moderately humid, hanging out around 30s F to 40 F.

The HRRR shows strong winds are not likely today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post

The HRRR shows that skies will be partly cloudy all over the state, but the cloud coverage will taper off towards the evening.

I will probably go for a run here in a few minutes.  It is still damp everywhere, but it is also cool and sunny.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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