Central New Mexico Weather: 10/8/18

Yesterday was mostly cloudy, mild, rainy and windy.  In Rio Rancho, we had about 0.24″ of rain, according to my weather station.  It dropped into the low 40s F last night.  There was even BB-sized hail, as I walked across the Walmart parking lot.

I took a photo of one of the storms to my south.

The storms were training, which increases the flooding threat.  Notice how the storms move in the same direction the line is oriented.  This means that the same area gets hit with rain over and over again.

This morning, the weather is mostly sunny, cool, and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a  30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature near 62 F.  Winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 42 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 67 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 44 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 59 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 36 F.  The winds will be from the west 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Flood Watch in the southeastern corner of the state.  Accumulating snow is possible in the western and northern parts of the state at elevations over 9000′.

The visible satellite imagery shows clouds over most of the state this morning.  There is a big clearing in the center of the state, where I live.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly-saturated atmosphere below 500 mb.   There was 0.43 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was 108 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -12 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 114 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.0 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 17 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 87 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies have some clouds and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows low pressure and a slight pressure gradient over the state today.  The RAP shows that the low will persist, and the gradient is not expected to intensify.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong southerly flow as a new trough pushes into the state this afternoon and evening.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows a few storms firing in the afternoon.  Coverage will be sparse and isolated.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 21 Z, reaching into the mid 60s F.

The HRRR shows that the atmosphere will dry out a little this afternoon, with dewpoint dropping into the 30s F.

The HRRR shows strong winds are not likely today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post

The HRRR shows that skies will be partly cloudy all over the state, all day.

I will probably go for a run here in a few minutes.  It is still damp everywhere, but it is also cool and sunny.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Radar Imagery, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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