Central New Mexico Weather: 10/7/18

Yesterday was mostly sunny, warm and breezy.

This morning, the weather is mostly cloudy, mild and breezy.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a  30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature near 73 F.  Winds will be from the south at 10-20 mph.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 46 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, but decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 76 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, increasing to 20-25 mph, and gusting to 35 mph in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 49 F.  The winds will be from the south at 20-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph, and then decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 69 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 43 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, but then decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Flood Watch in the southeastern corner of the state, and a Hazardous Weather Outlook for their entire warning area.  The Hazardous Weather Outlook concerns the potential for storms this afternoon and evening.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for the eastern border of New Mexico.

Associated with the Slight Risk is a 5% Tornado Threat Ring.

The visible satellite imagery shows clouds over most of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a moderately dry atmosphere this morning.   There was 0.43 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2243 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.9 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 9 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 56 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies have some clouds and the winds are steady and from the south.

The surface pressure chart shows low pressure and a slight pressure gradient over the state today.  The RAP shows that the low will deepen and the gradient is expected to tighten over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows increasingly strong southerly flow as a new trough pushes into the state this afternoon and evening.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows lots of storms firing and going linear quickly.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 21 Z, reaching into the mid 70’s F.

The HRRR shows that there will be a sharp dryline in eastern NM by this afternoon.

The HRRR shows moderate winds are a possibility all day today.  Strong gusts are possible everywhere in the state as well.

The HRRR shows that skies will be partly cloudy all over the state by this evening.

In terms of storms, the CAPE is unimpressive.

The supercell parameter looks good, but I’m having a hard time believing discrete cells are possible today.  Perhaps embedded cells in a linear mess.

Today will be a rainy, stormy mess by this evening.  I debated going chasing today, but my long “to do list” said otherwise.  I think with the limited CAPE and no capping, I actually expect lines of mess rather than discrete supercells.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Possible Chase Opportunity, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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