Yesterday was sunny, warm and still. I did go for an early morning run, and it was comfortable outside.
This morning has been mostly cloudy, mild, and still.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a high temperature near 82 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. Tonight will be cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 57 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph. Tonight will be cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 57 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 74 F. The winds will be from the south at 10 mph. This evening will be cloudy, with 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 53 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning fog in the eastern half of the state this morning. Low clouds will have the visibility to less than a mile in some areas. Also, Hurricane Rosa’s remnants will pass through in the next few days, bringing heavy rains and the potential for flooding.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time. The shortwave infrared imagery shows clouds over the western half of the state this morning.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly saturated atmosphere above 500 mb, as well as another saturated peak at 575 mb. There was 0.70 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no of Convective Inhibition (CINH). The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1406 m. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.0 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 17 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 27 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderately low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are cloudy and foggy in a few spots. The winds are light and variable.
The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today. The RAP shows none are expected to develop over the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate zonal to southwesterly flow over the state today.
The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows storms moving into the I-25 corridor from the southwest later this afternoon.
The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the upper 80’s F.
The HRRR shows that moisture will advance from two directions. The dryline will advance from the southeast. To our southwest, another dryline will advance ahead of the landfalling tropical system.
The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are unlikely today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The HRRR shows that skies will be partly to mostly cloudy all day.
The next few days will be interesting. The additional moisture from the tropical system will generate a few storms over the next few days.
Thank you for reading my post.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD