Central New Mexico Weather: 9/20/18

Around lunchtime yesterday, the rain started.  I returned home in the rain, and it rained all night.   Annoyingly, my relatively new roof (2 yr) in my house started leaking.

And it is still raining this morning.  Rainy, mild, still and overcast would be the best words to describe this morning.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, and a high temperature near 78 F.  Winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 54 F.  Winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 74 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 57 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, and a high temperature of 69 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 50 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming west after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the continued showers and thunderstorms this morning.

The visible satellite imagery shows heavy cloud cover over the entire state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a saturated atmosphere this morning. There was 1.20 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no of Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 457 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.5 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 4 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 44 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are cloudy and the Doppler RADAR is showing showers through the middle of the state.  Winds are light, statewide.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows no strong pressure systems or gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate southwesterly flow as our existing ridge exits to the east.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection for this forecast period.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows precipitation is expected to exit the region by 23 Z.  There will be showers off and on before then.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the mid 70’s F.

The HRRR shows that the Albuquerque Metro will be humid all day.  The dewpoints will be in the 50’s F all day.

The HRRR shows no strong wind gusts today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that there will be cloudy skies through this afternoon.  The skies will start to clear in the late afternoon to partly cloudy skies this evening.

The rain will eventually stop later today.  When I checked yesterday evening, we had already received 0.38 inches, and I forgot to check it this morning.  Too bad my garden is dead…

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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