Central New Mexico Weather: 9/6/18

Yesterday, there were some afternoon showers scattered along my commute, but I was not in the rain for very long at all.  There were some beautiful storms at sunset over the Sandias.

This morning has been mild, mostly cloudy and still.  Sunrise today was difficult to photograph, but I did my best.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature near 76 F.  Winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 56 F.  Winds will be from southeast at 5 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature near 78 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming east in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 58 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5 mph, becoming north after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 70 F.  The winds will be from the east at mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 51 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the potential for flooding due to the showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.  There are also several flood products in place.

The visible satellite imagery shows that most of the state is under a blanket of clouds.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly saturated atmosphere below 250 mb.  There was 0.90 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 65 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -127 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 761 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.0 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 11 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 18 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are mostly cloudy, with rain falling in the southeastern part of the state.  The winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows a high pressure system over the Colorado Rockies, but there are no strong pressure gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that the high pressure system will move east over the next six hours.   No strong pressure gradients are expected with this thermal low.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows southwesterly aloft as a shortwave trough dips south just west of the state.  There is a moderate jetstreak that runs through the state southwest to northeast.

The NAM 850mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows scattered showers and thunderstorms, beginning around 21 Z, with much broader coverage by 00 Z.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 23 Z, reaching into the low-80’s F.

The HRRR shows that the Albuquerque Metro area will dip into the 40’s F in the late afternoon, but will otherwise remain in the 50’s F range.

The HRRR shows that strong winds are unlikely today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that the skies will begin to cloud up in the early afternoon hours, and become mostly cloudy by the evening.

Today will be mild, humid and partly cloudy all day.  Showers and thunderstorm coverage will be much greater today, and I expect I will get rained on somewhere today.  I just hope my garden gets some more rain.

The HRRR is predicting warmer temperatures than the NWS is showing.  If this verifies, storm coverage and intensity could be slightly higher than expected.  I’m not sure that the HRRR is fully accounting for this morning cloud cover, however.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.