Central New Mexico Weather: 9/3/18

Yesterday was a beautiful day.  I spent part of the day outside pulling weeds from the yard.  It was mild, partly cloudy and slightly breezy.

This morning has been mild and still, with mostly cloudy skies.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature near 82 F.  Winds will be calm, becoming south at 5 mph in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 57 F.  Winds will be from south at 5 mph, becoming north after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature near 83 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 74 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 53 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the potential for flooding due to the showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

The visible satellite imagery shows high clouds over the center of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly saturated atmosphere.  There was 0.87 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 236 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -175 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 599 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.2 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 10 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 6 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are mostly clear (according to the sensors) with a few patches of clouds, and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that thermal low pressure is expected to develop over the eastern half of the state within the next six hours.  No strong pressure gradients are expected with this thermal low.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows southerly aloft as a shortwave trough dips south just west of the state.

The NAM 850mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows showers and thunderstorms off and on all day today.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 23 Z, reaching into the lower-80’s F.  The clouds and rain will keep it cooler today.

The HRRR shows that the Albuquerque Metro area will be quite humid, with a brief 30’s F dewpoint window.  The rest of the time, the dewpoints will be in the 50’s

The HRRR shows that strong winds are unlikely today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that there will be partly to mostly cloudy skies all day today.

Today will be mild, humid and partly cloudy all day.  I will try to get some more yardwork done today.  It will be a repeat from yesterday.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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