Central New Mexico Weather: 9/1/18

Yesterday, I got caught in two separate sets of storms.  One was in the afternoon in Socorro and the other passed over Rio Rancho in the late evening.  I think there were a few storms overnight as well.   There was one lonely cell to the south of Socorro that I thought was neat:

Along my commute to Rio Rancho, I saw a good example of a virga bomb, though my cell phone did not capture it very well.

In the evening, I captured a radar loop of a storm forming and passing over the Albuquerque Radar.

This morning has been mild and still, with overcast skies.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature near 81 F.  Winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 57 F.  Winds will be from southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming north after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature near 82 F. The winds will be from north at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming south after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 76 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming east in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 55 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the potential for flooding due to the showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather in the northeastern part of the state.  The primary threats will be large hail, damaging winds and frequent lightning.

The visible satellite imagery shows heavy cloud cover in the middle of the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly saturated atmosphere.  There was 0.98 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 1056 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -199 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 600 m.  There was a tiny thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.1 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 11 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 31 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are cloudy near the falling precipitation (as shown by the Doppler RADAR), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that thermal low pressure is expected to develop over the eastern half of the state within the next six hours.  No strong pressure gradients are expected with this thermal low.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows southerly aloft as a shortwave trough noses into the state from the west.

The NAM 850mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows showers and thunderstorms off and on all day today.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the lower-80’s F.  The clouds and rain will keep it cooler today.

The HRRR shows that the Albuquerque Metro area will be quite  humid, with dewpoints staying in the 50’s F.

The HRRR shows a few gusty winds, probably along the outflow of a line of storms.

The HRRR shows that there will be mostly cloudy skies all day today.

Today will be mild, rainy and cloudy all day today.  The severe storms will remain northeast of the Albuquerque Metro area.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Radar Imagery, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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