Central New Mexico Weather: 8/31/18

Yesterday was sunny, warm and still.  It was a beautiful day!  It did cloud up towards the evening, and there were thunderstorms all around Socorro, but we received no rain.

This morning has been mild and still, with a few stratocumulus clouds.

20180831_072432

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a 10% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature near 91 F.  Winds will be light and variable, becoming west at 5-10 mph in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 62 F.  Winds will be from west at 5-10 mph, becoming north after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature near 91 F. The winds will be from southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 64 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming north after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 84 F.  The winds will be light and variable, becoming southwest at 5-10 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 59 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the potential for flooding due to the showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few strips of clouds over the mountains.

8-31-18 vis

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry boundary layer, but a nearly saturated layer from 600 mb to 400 mb.  There was 0.78 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2043 m.  There was a tiny thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.5 C/km.

8-31-18 12z abq

The hodograph shows that there was 8 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 15 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

8-31-18 12z abq hodo

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear, and the winds are light and variable.

8-31-18 surf

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that thermal low pressure is expected to develop over the eastern half of the state within the next six hours.  No strong pressure gradients are expected with this thermal low.

8-31-18 pres

 

The NAM 250 mb chart shows southwesterly flow over the state by this afternoon.

8-31-18 250mb

The NAM 850mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows a few scattered showers by this afternoon, with wider coverage this evening.

8-31-18 hrrr ref

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 21 Z, reaching into the lower-90’s F.

8-31-18 temp

The HRRR shows that the Albuquerque Metro area will remain dry today, with dewpoints only reaching into the mid 30’s.  The dryline will push east to the Texas line today.

8-31-18 dp

The HRRR shows no strong wind gusts today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that there will be increasing cloud cover throughout the day, with mostly cloudy skies this evening.

8-31-18 clouds

Today will be warm and sunny throughout the morning.  In the afternoon, a few showers and thunderstorms will develop.  Based on the inverted-vee sounding, and the nearly saturated layer aloft, I could see a few virga bomb winds occurring this afternoon and into the early evening.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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