Central New Mexico Weather: 8/25/18

Yesterday threatened rain and thunderstorms all afternoon, but I never received rain in Socorro, Magdalena or Rio Rancho

This morning has been partly sunny, mild and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a scattered showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) isolated showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. South wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. South wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the potential for heavy showers and the potential for flash flooding.  Flash flood watches are in place for several areas.

The visible satellite imagery shows that there are large patches of clouds over several parts of the state.  There is some morning convection over the northwestern quadrant of the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly-saturated atmosphere this morning. There was 1.01 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was 45 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -326 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 768 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.7 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 5 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 23 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are mostly sunny (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows that there are no strong pressure systems or gradients gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that thermal low pressure is expected to develop over the eastern half of the state within the next six hours.  No strong pressure gradients are expected with this thermal low.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows southwesterly flow over New Mexico today, with no strong jet streaks.

The NAM 850mb chart shows no strong thermal advection for this forecast period.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that storms will begin to fire in the early afternoon and will impact the central I-25 corridor by 22 Z.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 21 Z, reaching into the mid-80’s F.

The HRRR shows that the Albuquerque Metro area will remain humid all day.  The dewpoint will only briefly drop as low as 45 F, before rising again in the evening.

The HRRR shows no strong wind gusts today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that the skies will become partly to mostly cloudy by this afternoon, and then remain so through the evening.

Today will be warm, partly cloudy and still today, with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms a possibility.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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