Dickinson, North Dakota, Weather: 8/5/18

Yesterday was an incredibly pleasant day along our route from Gillette, WY, to Dickinson, ND.  We stopped at Devil’s Tower and hiked for several hours.   A few storms formed well to our east.

By the evening, we were able to cruise with the windows down.

This morning has been sunny, mild and still.

The NWS in Bismarck, ND, forecasts (for Dickinson, ND) increasing clouds, with a high temperature of 81 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 7-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 56 F.  The winds will be from the north at 3-7 mph.

The NWS in Bismarck, ND, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning isolated showers and thunderstorms in the area.  The primary threat will be lightning.

The visible satellite image shows no clouds over western North Dakota.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12 Z upper air sounding from Bismarck shows a moderately humid atmosphere this morning.  There was 0.79 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 353 m.  There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.2 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 19 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 40 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity, based on the dewpoints.   The skies are clear, and the winds are generally still.

The surface pressure chart shows that there are no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows zonal flow over the state today.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that western North Dakota will be missed by a cluster of storms to the south.  However, by the late evening hours, a scattered storm may pass through the area.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperature will be in the low 80’s by 22 Z.

The HRRR dewpoints will be in the upper 40’s and low 50’s all day.  A secondary plume of moisture will move in from the southwest (shown in the image below).

The HRRR shows that the winds in the Denver area will remain light.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR also shows increasing clouds through the afternoon and evening hours.

Today will be pleasant, though a little humid.  Increased clouds will make photography on today’s adventures a little more interesting.  A shower or thunderstorm is possible this evening as well.

Thank you for reading my post.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD


About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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