Yesterday was a hot day. We had a few afternoon clouds, but they cleared up in time for observations. I tried to stay indoors as much as possible, with temperatures clearing 100 F.
This morning has been sunny, warm and still.
The NWS in Boulder, CO, forecasts a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 95 F. The winds will be west at 5-8 mph, becoming northeast in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 67 F. The winds will be light and variable, becoming northwesterly at 5-8 mph by midnight.
The NWS in Boulder, CO, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the record high temperatures. There are Red Flag Warnings for the areas west of the Rocky Mountains. The NWS Watches and Warnings Graphic is shown below:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather threat ring for the western part of the state, where low humidity, high temperatures and strong winds will increase the fire threat. The Denver Metro area is inside the Elevated Fire Weather threat ring.
The visible satellite image shows a few cumulus clouds east of the I-25 corridor, and lighter cirrus clouds over the southeastern part of the state this morning.
The 12 Z upper air sounding from Boulder shows a large capping inversion near the surface and slightly higher humidity between 500 mb and 400 mb. There was 0.34 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH). The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2546 m. There was a large thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.5 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 24 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 34 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and low humidity, based on the dewpoints. There are pockets of extremely dry air (2 F dewpoints). The skies are clear, and the winds are light and variable, statewide.
The surface pressure chart shows that the pressure is low, statewide. There are no strong pressure gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that the pressure will drop everywhere in the region, due to diurnal heating. No strong pressure gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows southwesterly flow over the state today as a small trough approaches from the west.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that a few storms may begin to fire east of the I-25 corridor by 02 Z.
The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for Boulder will peak in the mid-90s by 22 Z.
The HRRR shows that the winds in the Denver area will remain light. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The NAM shows clouds moving out of the Denver Metro area by 06 Z. The NAM shows that the skies will likely clear up enough for observations today.
The HRRR shows a scattered clouds at 03 Z, that will drift east, but still be over the Denver area at 05 Z.
Today is going to be hot. The models are in disagreement about cloud coverage this evening, and so it is going to be a crap shoot as to whether or not we have clear enough skies for observations. The HRRR is actually trending a bit damper for the Denver area, but drier overall.
Thank you for reading my post.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD