Central New Mexico Weather: 6/13/18

Yesterday was hot and sunny all day.  The temperature cooled off a bit in the evening, and a few clouds developed, though it was mostly clear.

This morning has been mostly sunny, warm and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 98 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5-15 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 66 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 100 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon.   This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 66 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-25 mph, decreasing to 5-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 91 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon.   This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, but then decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has also issued an Air Quality Alert for the northwestern corner of the state, and a Hazardous Weather Outlook for the rest of their warning area.  The Air Quality Alert is for smoke, and the Hazardous Weather Outlook concerns isolated thunderstorms that will begin this afternoon.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for the very northeastern corner of the state today.  Isolated severe wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats from these storms.

The visible satellite image shows that a few clouds formed over the state last night.  Most of the state is under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a sounding with low humidity throughout.  There was 0.36 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 3653 m.  There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.7 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 9 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 24 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show high temperatures and low humidity, based on the dewpoints.  The skies are mostly clear, though a few stations are reporting cloud cove.  The winds are light, statewide.  There is a dryline that splits the state in half along the central mountain range.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that thermal low pressure is expected to develop over the eastern half of the state within the next six hours.  No strong pressure gradients are expected with this thermal low.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows zonal flow over the state today.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows a few sub-severe storms will begin to fire off the central mountain range by 21 Z.   Storm coverage will be greatest over the eastern half of the state, but storms will be scattered throughout the state.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 21 Z, reaching into the upper-90’s and low 100’s F.

The HRRR shows that the winds will not be very strong. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows the skies clouding up through the afternoon due to the showers and thunderstorms.

Today will be hot, but there will be some relief this afternoon with stronger winds and isolated thunderstorms.

Storms will be possible later this week, so I will be watching this situation closely over the next few days.  We will be getting some of the moisture from Hurricane Bud in the Pacific, which will be a welcome relief to this drought.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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