Central New Mexico Weather: 6/12/18

Yesterday was hot and sunny all day.

This morning has been sunny, hot and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 99 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 67 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming east after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 101 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 10-15 mph.   This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 66 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 92 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 10-15 mph.   This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 63 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for the very northeastern corner of the state today.  Isolated severe wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats from these storms.

The visible satellite image shows very few clouds in the sky, statewide.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a sounding with low humidity throughout.  There was 0.32 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2803 m.  There was a large thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.2 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 10 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 8 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show high temperatures and low humidity, based on the dewpoints.  The skies are clear, and the winds are light.  There is a dryline that cuts through the eastern third of the state.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that thermal low pressure is expected to develop over the eastern half of the state within the next six hours.  No strong pressure gradients are expected with this thermal low.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows southwesterly flow over the state today.

 

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows precipitation is unlikely today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the upper-90’s and low 100’s F.

The HRRR shows that the winds will not be very strong. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that a few clouds will form by the late afternoon, though coverage will be light.

Today will be hot, with virtually no breeze and few clouds today.  Thankfully, the lower wind speeds have reduced the fire threat a little for today.

Storms will be possible later this week, so I will be watching this situation closely over the next few days.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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