Yesterday was hot and a bit breezy.
This morning has been sunny, warm and still.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 96 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph. This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 62 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 98 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming southeast by the afternoon. This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming east in the afternoon. This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 60 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 10 mph, becoming west after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Heat Advisory for several counties in the southern part of the state. They have also issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning thunderstorms later this week. The NWS Watches and Warnings Graphic is shown below:
The visible satellite image shows no clouds in the sky, statewide. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a sounding with low humidity throughout. There was 0.26 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH). The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 3651 m. There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.3 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 23 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 24 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show high temperatures and low humidity, based on the dewpoints. The skies are clear, and the winds are light. There is a dryline that cuts through the eastern third of the state, as well as an outflow boundary from yesterday’s storms showing up on RADAR.
The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that thermal low pressure is expected to develop over the eastern half of the state within the next six hours. No strong pressure gradients are expected with this thermal low.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows a light, upper-level high pressure system directly above the thermal low at the surface. Notice how the upper-level winds are circling around the high pressure in a clockwise flow pattern.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows precipitation is highly unlike today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 23 Z, reaching into the upper-90’s, nearing 100 F.
The HRRR shows that the winds will not be very strong. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The HRRR shows that clouds are unlikely today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
Today will be hot, with virtually no breeze and no clouds at all today. Thankfully, the lower wind speeds have reduced the fire threat a little for today.
Storms will be possible later this week, so I will be watching this situation closely over the next few days.
Thank you for reading my post.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD