Yesterday was hot. There were a few isolated thunderstorms, though none crossed my path.
This morning has been sunny, warm and still.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 94 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 94 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of dry, isolated thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 85 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of dry, isolated thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for most of the state today, as well as an Air Quality Alert. The Air Quality Alert is for smoke, and the Hazardous Weather Outlook is for dry lightning strikes and gusty downdrafts from isolated thunderstorms. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The visible satellite image shows that there are clouds drifting into the state from the south.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a sounding with variable moisture. There was 0.61 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH). The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2043 m. There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.6 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 15 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 18 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, moderate humidity (based on the dewpoints), and mostly sunny skies. Winds are light and variable, with no strong boundaries present.
The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that the pressure will drop throughout the day, due to diurnal heating, but no strong pressure systems or gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart southwesterly flow over the state today. We will be under a slight ridge.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that isolated storms are possible over most of the state today.
The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the mid-90’s.
The HRRR shows that the winds will not be very strong. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The HRRR shows that most of the state will see broken skies today. Many of the clouds will be “anvil material” from isolated, dry thunderstorms.
Today will be hot, yet again. There will be isolated thunderstorms today, though they will likely be dry and below severe limits. Given the dry lower half of the sounding, virga bombs and gusty downdraft winds will be the primary storm elements today.
Thank you for reading my post.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD