Yesterday was hot and a bit breezy.
This morning has been sunny, warm and still.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 95 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 62 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming light and variable after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 97 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast by the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming west after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of dry, isolated thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 88 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of dry, isolated thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 60 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming west after midnight.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for the eastern part of the state. The primary threats will be large hail and damaging winds.
The visible satellite image shows that there is a few light clouds in patches around the state.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a sounding with some moisture at all levels. However, given the high temperatures, the humidity is low everywhere. There was 0.42 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH). The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2392 m. There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.6 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 7 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 16 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) are strangely unavailable at this time. Only a few stations are reporting.
The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that thermal low pressure is expected to develop over the eastern half of the state within the next six hours. No strong pressure gradients are expected with this thermal low.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows zonal flow over New Mexico today, with no strong jet streaks.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that precipitation is possible, particularly over the eastern third of the state, where storms will fire along the dryline.
The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the upper-90’s, nearing 100 F.
The HRRR shows that the winds will not be very strong. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The HRRR shows that the skies will mostly clear throughout the day, but will cloud up this evening. Some of these clouds will be due to storms in the eastern third of the state.
Today will be hot, yet again. There will be a few isolated storms in the western 2/3 of the state, and stronger storms forming along the dryline in the eastern 1/3. The western storms will form over a dry boundary layer, meaning more virga and less precipitation. Also, a dry lightning strike-type fire is possible.
Thank you for reading my post.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD