Today is the fifth day of the Magdalena Storm Chase. Sorry this is brief, WordPress LOST my post and I’m now rewriting it. We are starting our day in Oklahoma City.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Sight Risk for our area today. There is an Enhanced Risk farther north, but it is out of play for us.
There is a 2% Tornado Threat Ring for our area. The 5% Tornado Threat Ring is out of play for us, as we have to be in NM tomorrow.
Synoptically speaking, the 250 mb NAM chart shows that there is still a deep trough ejecting into Kansas and Nebraska again this afternoon.
At the 500 mb level, the NAM shows that there is no impressive vorticity in our area.
The NAM 700 mb level chart shows that there is also no impressive rapidly-rising air.
The NAM 850 mb level chart shows no strong thermal advection anywhere. This is because the front has stalled over Kansas.
The NAM dewpoint surface chart shows plenty of moisture, though no sharp dryline over central Oklahoma.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity chart shows a squall line moving east, with nothing forming in its wake.
The HRRR supercell composite shows a secondary line of higher values behind the squall line. This is confirmed on the RAP and the NAM as well.
The Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is expected to climb to roughly 3000 J/kg near us. There is some instability.
We are going to linger here in Oklahoma City for a bit. I am not impressed with this setup at all- no rapidly-rising air at 700 mb, no vorticity at 500 mb, and we are in the wake of a squall line. However, there is still plenty of moisture, shear and some instability. I don’t think anything will materialize, but I would hate to drive away from Oklahoma City and find storms fired later today. We can drive home from here tomorrow easily, if need be, so I don’ t think there is a huge rush to leave.
Thank you for reading my post.