Today is the fourth day of the Magdalena Storm Chase! We are starting our day in Salina, KS, and will head probably southwest today.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Moderate Risk again today.
There is a 10% Hatched Tornado Threat Ring, though it is not associated with the Moderate Risk.
Synoptically speaking, we do not have great dynamics. The 250 mb NAM chart shows that there is a deep trough ejecting into Kansas and Nebraska again this afternoon.
At the 500 mb level, the NAM shows that there are a few pockets of strong Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) that will move through southwestern Kansas by 21 Z.
The NAM 700 mb level chart shows that there is also a few pockets of rapidly-rising air, most notably over southwestern Kansas.
The NAM 850 mb level chart shows no strong thermal advection anywhere. This is because the front has stalled over Kansas.
The NAM dewpoint surface chart shows a sharp dryline forming over western and central Kansas throughout the day. Humid dewpoints are expected over most of Kansas by the early afternoon hours.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity chart shows storms forming and quickly going linear today. The farther southwest we go, the more likely we are to find discrete cells.
The HRRR supercell composite shows a line of highest potential that nearly parallels KS-156.
The Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is expected to climb to roughly 3000 J/kg, though higher in the Moderate Risk area.
We are going to not chase the Moderate Risk, but instead chase the higher tornado potential in southwestern and central Kansas. I am targeting somewhere like Pratt for now.
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