Today is the third day of the Magdalena Storm Chase! We started out our day in the Northwest Inn in Woodward, OK.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Enhanced Risk to our north. Later in the day, this has progressed to a Moderate Risk.
There is a 10% Hatched Tornado Threat Ring associated with the Moderate Risk.
Synoptically speaking, we do not have great dynamics. The 250 mb NAM chart shows that there is a deep trough ejecting into Kansas and Nebraska this afternoon.
At the 500 mb level, the NAM shows that there are a few pockets of strong Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) that will move through central Kansas by 00 Z.
The NAM 700 mb level chart shows that there is also a few pockets of rapidly-rising air, most notably over western Kansas.
The NAM 850 mb level chart shows no strong thermal advection anywhere. This is because the front has stalled over Kansas.
The NAM dewpoint surface chart shows a sharp dryline forming over western and central Kansas throughout the day. Humid dewpoints are expected over most of Kansas by the early afternoon hours.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity chart shows storms forming along the frontal boundary quickly, and drifting slowly east. They do look to merge soon after forming, just because so many storms are expected to form.
The HRRR supercell composite looks great today. I like the bull’s eye not too far from Great Bend, KS.
The Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is expected to climb to roughly 1000 J/kg. Not a strong storm chasing day, but some storms will fire.
We are currently stationed in Great Bend, KS, waiting for storm initiation. Currently, we are at a park just north of the city, and the students are playing on the swings. It is hot and humid, with a temperature of 83 F, and some light southeasterly breeze. The skies were cloudy this morning, but are thankfully clearing up a bit, leaving behind hazy cumulus clouds. Everything about today feels like severe weather…
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