Today is the second day of the Magdalena Storm Chase! We are on the road, waiting for storms near Shamrock, TX. I will now post what I remember of our forecast this morning.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk along the dryline through the eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
There is a 2% chance of tornadoes along the dryline in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska.
Synoptically speaking, we do not have great dynamics. The 250 mb NAM chart shows that there is a trough has moved closer. I did not capture this image, however.
The NAM dewpoint surface chart shows that moisture is expected to increase significantly today. Perhaps our storms will not be moisture starved today.
The HRRR supercell composite shows a few pockets of promising conditions, most notably over the Texas Panhandle.
The Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is expected to climb to roughly 2000 J/kg along the eastern Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma border.
This morning, I targeted somewhere between Shamrock, TX, and Erick, OK. As it turns out, we weren’t too far off. There were no tornadoes in our area, and only a few storms, but we were there to see what there was to see- cells dying in moisture-starved environments. The dewpoint was not as high as was forecasted.
Thank you for reading my post.
The outlooks and the soundings are from: Storm Prediction Center
The HRRR and NAM model images are from: COD Meteorology — Numerical Model Data
