Follow up from yesterday: 18 tornadoes reported from Virginia to Florida. Details are still coming in about several large, damaging tornadoes, including ones in Greensboro, NC, and Lynchburg, VA.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a “No Severe Storms Forecasted” statement about today’s threat. There is very little severe threat.
Synoptically speaking, the 250 mb NAM chart shows that the trough is moving into the Atlantic. Another trough is moving through the western 1/3 of the country. I will be watching this trough later this week.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows strong many areas of strong positive vorticity.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows a few pockets of rapidly-rising air. Some are over New England, and then a few over Basin and Range country in Nevada and Utah.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows that the strongest thermal advection is in New England, associated with the trough and cold front that is moving into the Atlantic.
The surface dewpoints (NAM) show that most of the nation will be dry today. There is some moisture return into the Great Plains through Texas and Oklahoma.
Overall, I think there is little chance of severe weather today. Areas where there is moisture, there is no lift or instability. Areas where the may be lift, there is no moisture.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the <a href=”http://www.spc.noaa.gov/” target=”_blank”>Storm Prediction Center</a> website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from <a href=”http://www.twisterdata.com” target=”_blank”>TwisterData.com</a>.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from <a href=”http://weather.unisys.com” target=”_blank”>Unisys Weather</a>.
The satellite data is from <a href=”http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/” target=”_blank”>NASA – MSFC</a>
