Central New Mexico Weather: 3/17/18

Yesterday was really nice.  It was sunny, warm and still.  Once again, I spent most of my day outside, unfortunately.

This morning has been sunny, mild and still.  I may go for a run when I finish this post.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 64 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 35 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 69 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-20 mph.   This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 38 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.   This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 33 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 10-15 mph in the evening .

The NWS in Albuquerque has issues Red Flag Warnings and High Wind Watches for much of the state today.  There is also a Special Weather Statement in place for tomorrow concerning a late winter storm.  This system will bring snow, high winds and thunderstorms to New Mexico.  I will discuss this more in tomorrow’s post.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

 

The visible satellite image shows very few clouds over most of the state, though there is a patch of clouds over the southeastern corner.

The infrared satellite image shows that most of the clouds are thin and have low, warm tops.

The enhanced low-level water vapor satellite imagery shows dry air over most of the state, with a little moisture in the southeastern corner.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a moderately-dry atmosphere.  There was 0.25 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1639 m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.2 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 19 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 41 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear (according to the sensors), and the winds are light generally from the south.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows the pressure will drop everywhere with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows that there is moderate southwesterly flow over the state today.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows precipitation is unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 23 Z, reaching into the upper-60’s.

The HRRR shows that winds may gust as high as the low 20’s, but overall, strong winds are not expected today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows a few clouds creeping into the state from the southwest this evening, but they will quickly move out and mix out.

Today will be warm and sunny with light winds.  I’m itching to get outside and do something, so I will probably go for a run and tinker in my garden a bit.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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