Southwestern New Mexico Weather: 3/11/18

Yesterday was mostly sunny, warm and windy in Deming.  The wind damaged our tent at the Deming Gem and Mineral show, so we packed up early.

This morning has been overcast, cool and still.  I did go out for an early morning run.

The NWS in El Paso, TX, forecasts (for Deming, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 40% chance of showers, and a high temperature of 56 F.  The winds will be from the east southeast at 6-11 mph, gusting as high as 20 mph this afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 10% chance of isolated showers, and a low temperature of 39 F.  The winds will be from the east at 10-13 mph, gusting as high as 21 mph.

The NWS in El Paso, TX, forecasts (for Silver City, NM) a cloudy day, with a 70% chance of showers, and a high temperature of 50 F.  The winds will be light and from the east, becoming southeast a 9-14 mph gusting to 22 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 70% chance of showers before 7 PM, and tapering off to a 20% chance of showers late this evening.   The low temperature is expected to be 34 F.  The winds will be from the east 9-11 mph, gusting as high as 18 mph.

The NWS in El Paso, TX, forecasts (for Lordsburg, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 40% chance of showers, and a high temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be light and from the southeast, becoming east at 16-21 mph, gusting as high as 25 mph this afternoon.   This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and a low temperature of 45 F.  The winds will be from the west northwest at 15-20 mph, gusting as high as 32 mph.

The visible satellite image shows that most of the state is under heavy cloud cover this morning.

The infrared satellite image shows a thick blanket of stratus clouds covering the state this morning, most with low, warm tops.

The enhanced low-level water vapor satellite imagery shows that moisture has returned and mixed through the layers this morning.  Our fire danger has decreased this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from El Paso shows a nearly-saturated atmosphere, with some drier air in the boundary layer.  There was 0.80 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1382 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.7 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 17 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 58 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are cloudy (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable this morning.  The Doppler RADAR shows rain falling in a few patches.

The surface pressure chart shows slightly higher pressure and a slight pressure gradient across the state this morning.  The RAP shows that this trend will continue for at least the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows mostly strong, zonal flow over the state today.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that precipitation is likely throughout most of the day.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures will reach into the mid-50’s today, peaking at around 20 Z.  It will be much colder today as compared to yesterday.

The HRRR shows that the wind speeds will be strong, but consistent.  Even so, this chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that the skies will become overcast all day.

Today will be an unpleasant day in southwestern New Mexico.  It will be cool, cloudy, and rainy.  We aren’t spending any more time at the outdoor rock show, or outdoors in general.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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