Southwestern New Mexico Weather: 3/10/18

Yesterday was pleasant, but breezy in Deming.

This morning has been overcast, cool and still.

The NWS in El Paso, TX, forecasts (for Deming, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 75 F.  The winds will be from the west at 11-16 mph, increasing to 19-24 mph and gusting as high as 32 mph this afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers, and a low temperature of 47 F.  The winds will be from the west at 17-22 mph, gusting as high as 28 mph, but then decreasing to 7 to 12 mph after midnight.

The NWS in El Paso, TX, forecasts (for Silver City, NM) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the west at 8-13 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph, and gusting as high as 28 mph this afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and a low temperature of 41 F.  The winds will be from the west 20-25 mph, gusting as high as 30 mph, but then decreasing to 8-13 mph after midnight.

The NWS in El Paso, TX, forecasts (for Lordsburg, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 74 F.  The winds will be from the west northwest at 9-14 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph, gusting as high as 25 mph this afternoon.   This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and a low temperature of 45 F.  The winds will be from the west northwest at 15-20 mph, gusting as high as 25 mph, but then decreasing to 7-12 mph after midnight.

The NWS in El Paso has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning gusty winds near Lordsburg this afternoon.  There is a Red Flag Warning over the Organ Mountains as well.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather Risk for the southeastern corner of the state today.  This is due to the dry boundary layer, above average temperatures and gusty winds that are possible this afternoon.

The visible satellite image is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite image shows clouds over the western half of the state this morning.

The enhanced low-level water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is moisture over most of the state this morning- even though the boundary layer may be dry.

The 12Z upper air sounding from El Paso shows a nearly-saturated layer at 450 mb this morning.  There was 0.34 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was  2640 m.  There was a tiny thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.4 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 34 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 59 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear, with a few exceptions (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable this morning.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows mostly strong, zonal flow over the state today.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that precipitation is possible late this evening and into the early morning hours tomorrow.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures will reach into the mid-70’s today, peaking at around 22 Z.

The HRRR shows that the wind speeds will be strong, but consistent.  Even so, this chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that the skies will become overcast by this evening.

Today will be a pleasant day in southwestern New Mexico.  It will be warm, breezy and partly cloudy.  However, clouds and rain will roll into the area late this evening and persist into tomorrow morning.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Fire Weather, Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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