Southwestern New Mexico Weather: 3/9/18

Yesterday was pleasant in Deming.  It was sunny, warm and still, becoming overcast by the afternoon.  The wind picked up speed in the afternoon.

This morning has been overcast, cool and still.

The NWS in El Paso, TX, forecasts (for Deming, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 77 F.  The winds will be from the west at 11-16 mph, increasing to 17-22 mph and gusting as high as 30 mph this afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 45 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph, gusting as high as 21 mph.

The NWS in El Paso, TX, forecasts (for Silver City, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 67 F.  The winds will be from the west at 8-13 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph, and gusting as high as 28 mph this afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 42 F.  The winds will be from the west northwest at 13-17 mph, gusting as high as 23 mph.

The NWS in El Paso, TX, forecasts (for Lordsburg, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 75 F.  The winds will be from the west 7-17 mph, gusting to 24 mph.   This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 44 F.  The winds will be from the west northwest at 9-15 mph, gusting as high as 21 mph.

The NWS in El Paso has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning gusty winds near Lordsburg this afternoon.  There is a Red Flag Warning over the Organ Mountains as well.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather Risk for the southwestern corner of the state today.  This is due to the dry boundary layer, above average temperatures and gusty winds that are possible this afternoon.

The visible satellite image shows light cloud cover over most of the state, especially in the south.

The infrared satellite image shows clouds over the southern third of the state, including Deming, Lordsburg and Silver City.

The enhanced low-level water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is moisture over most of the state this morning- even though the boundary layer may be dry.

The 12Z upper air sounding from El Paso shows a moderately damp atmosphere this morning.  There was 0.39 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was  2553 m.  There was a large thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.0 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 28 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 48 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear, with a few exceptions (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable this morning.  The dewpoints have risen 10-15 degrees as compared to yesterday, so some of that upper-level moisture is mixing in to the boundary layer.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows that a low-amplitude ridge is passing through New Mexico today, though it has attenuated slightly from yesterday.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that precipitation is unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures will reach into the upper 70’s today, peaking at around 23 Z.

The HRRR shows that the wind speeds will be in the upper teens, but the NWS is showing stronger winds are possible.  Even so, this chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that the skies will remain partly cloudy for most of the day.

Today will be a pleasant day in southwestern New Mexico.  It will be warm, slightly breezy and partly cloudy.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Fire Weather, Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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