Central New Mexico Weather: 3/1/18

Yesterday was cloudy, cool, and breezy.  It flurried off and on until the early afternoon in Socorro.  As I commuted home, there was a nice view of the Manzanos, with some snow and clouds.

This morning has been clear, cold and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 56 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 29 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming east after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 58 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming south this afternoon.   This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 30 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 52 F.  The winds will be from the east 10-15 mph.   This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 29 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued several Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite image is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite image shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The enhanced low-level water vapor satellite imagery shows dry air dominates most of the state today.  Yesterday’s moisture relieved some of our wildfire threats, though they will return tomorrow, given the dry air today.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a slightly damp boundary layer, with drier air aloft.  There was 0.15 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 632 m.  There was a large thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 3.5 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 11 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 45 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable this morning.

The surface pressure chart shows that high pressure has settled over New Mexico this morning.  The pressure gradient is very weak.  The RAP shows no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop, and the high pressure will persist for at least the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows the trough has attenuated and moved east, leaving New Mexico in a zonal flow regime.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that precipitation is unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 23 Z, reaching into the upper-50’s.

The HRRR shows that wind speeds will be lower today than they’ve been for several days.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that the skies will remain mostly clear.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be sunnier, warmer and less breezy than yesterday.  We will dry out a bit today, boosting our fire threat for tomorrow.  However, today looks like it will be a pleasant day.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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