Central New Mexico Weather: 2/27/18

Yesterday was cool and sunny, with a light breeze.

This morning has been mostly clear, cold and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming south at 15-20 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 32 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with blowing dust, and a high temperature of 67 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, increasing to 15-25 mph and gusting to 35 mph in the afternoon.   This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 33 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 59 F.  The winds will be from the southwest 10-15 mph, increasing to 20-25 mph and gusting to 35 mph in the afternoon.   This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 30 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued Fire Weather Watch and Red Flag Warnings that cover most of the state today, as low humidity and high winds are both possible.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather Risk for the northeastern part of the state today.  The trough will continue to move east from Southern California into the Four Corners region by tomorrow morning, increasing southwesterly flow, warming and drying out the state.

The visible satellite image is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite image shows a few thin, warm-topped clouds over the southern third of the state this morning.

The enhanced low-level water vapor satellite imagery shows moisture associated with the clouds in the south.  These clouds, however, are moving out of the state and mixing out this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows dry air aloft.  There was 0.11 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2143 m.  There were a large thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.9 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 23 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 91 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and very low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable this morning.

The surface pressure chart shows a lee-side low forming over eastern Colorado, with only a slight pressure gradient across the state this morning.  The RAP shows that the low will intensify over the next six hours.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows precipitation is unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR has the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 23 Z, reaching into the upper-60’s.  Today will be 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday.

The HRRR shows that the wind gusts will be strong today for much of the state.

The HRRR shows that the skies will remain clear today.  This evening, a few clouds will drift in and cover the southeastern corner of the state.

Today will be sunny, warm and windy.   Whatever fire threat we had yesterday is amplified today by the warmer and windier conditions.  It’s been a while since I’ve personally been in a Critical Fire Weather Risk ring…

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Fire Weather, Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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