Central New Mexico Weather: 2/25/18

Yesterday was cool, mostly sunny and breezy all afternoon.

This morning has been mostly clear, cold and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 46 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 20 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 51 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon.   This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 23 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 43 F.  The winds will be from the northwest 15-20 mph.   This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 19 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Fire Weather Watch for the eastern part of the state today, as low humidity and high winds are both possible.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather Risk for the east-central part of the state this afternoon.  The upper level trough will move east from the Four Corners region, providing strong downslope flow into the eastern plains, where there are abundant dry fuels.

The visible satellite image is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite image shows very few clouds over the north-central part of the state.  All clouds are thin, with low, warm tops.

The enhanced low-level water vapor satellite imagery shows mostly dry conditions over the state, with some moisture over the north-central part of the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly-saturated layer at the 500 mb level, but dry conditions elsewhere.  There was 0.16 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1124 m.  There was a tiny thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.3 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 17 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 93 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and from the west so far this morning.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.  However, a 1026 mb high pressure system is expected to intensify and move over the Four Corners region in the next six hours, which will create a moderate pressure gradient in the eastern plains.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows precipitation is unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR has the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 23 Z, reaching into the mid-40’s.

The HRRR shows strong winds are possible through the eastern half and central mountain chain due to strengthening high pressure in the western part of the state.

The HRRR shows that the skies will remain clear today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be sunny, cool, and slightly breezy here in the Rio Grande River Valley.  It’s too cool out for outdoor work, and that is probably alright by me, as I will be inside for most of the day anyhow.  I won’t go for a run though, and that is disappointing.

There is a chance of snow later this week, and I’ll post about it as the threat becomes more clear.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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