Central New Mexico Weather: 2/23/18

Yesterday was cool, mostly sunny and breezy all afternoon. It was not nearly as breezy as was predicted yesterday.

This morning has been mostly clear, cold and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 53 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 25 F.  The winds will be from the west at 15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny morning, with a high temperature of 58 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, increasing to 20-25 mph in the afternoon.   This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 27 F.  The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 52 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph.   This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 20 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 15-25 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued Winter Weather Watch and several High Wind Warnings concerning an approaching storm from the northwest.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite image is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite image shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The enhanced low-level water vapor satellite imagery shows mostly dry conditions over the state, with a little moisture exiting the southeastern corner of the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows dry air has returned to the state this morning.  There was 0.12 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1002 m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.6 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 27 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 86 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable so far this morning.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that none are expected to develop in the next six hours.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows precipitation is unlikely for most of the day.  Some begins to creep into the state from the west this evening, but it is near the model edge (and a hole in the model for western New Mexico), so I have not included this chart this morning.

The HRRR has the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 23 Z, reaching into the upper-50’s.

The HRRR shows strong winds are possible through the Rio Grande River Valley and west as this storm system and frontal boundary approach.

The HRRR shows that the skies will remain clear through the afternoon.  Clouds will not return until the late evening hours and early morning hours tomorrow.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be sunnier, warmer and breezier than yesterday ahead of the first of two potential winter storms.  I will post more about these as details become available.  In the meantime, the weather will be pleasant today, though breezy in the afternoon.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Winter Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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