Central New Mexico Weather: 2/12/18

Yesterday was partly sunny, mild and cool.

This morning has been mostly cloudy, still and cold.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 56 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming south at 15-20 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 34 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 55 F.  The winds will be from the south 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph, and gusting as high as 30 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 32 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 51 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, gusting as high as 30 mph.   This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 31 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.

The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the area surrounding Chama, due to the snow that will fall above 8000 ft.  The rest of the state is under Hazardous Weather Outlooks concerning strong winds today.  A few Wind Advisories are also in place over the western part of the state.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite image is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite image shows a large patch of clouds over the northwestern corner of the state.

The enhanced low-level water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is quite a bit of moisture associated with these clouds, hence the Winter Weather Advisory for the higher elevations.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a saturated layer from 600 mb to 550 mb, followed by extremely dry air at 500 mb.  There was 0.33 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1135 m.  There was a tiny thermal inversion above the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.8 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 37 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 49 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear over most stations (according to the sensors), though there is some cloud cover over the northern third of the state.  The winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows high pressure over the Great Plains and low pressure over the Great Basin.  This has set up a moderate pressure gradient between them, including New Mexico.  The RAP shows that the pressure systems and gradient will persist for at least the next six hours.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows precipitation is expected along the Colorado border, but is not expected anywhere else in the state.

The HRRR has the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley are comparable to yesterday, though slightly warmer.

The HRRR shows that strong winds are expected today across most of the state, thanks to the approaching low pressure system.

The HRRR shows that clouds will occur off and on all day today.  Peak cloudiness for the Rio Grande River Valley is around 15 Z, but clouds will be there all day.

Today will be slightly warmer than yesterday.  Unfortunately, it will be windy and partly cloudy instead.  However, this weather will bring a chance of showers later this week, and we need the moisture, so it’s a mixed blessing.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Winter Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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