Central New Mexico Weather: 2/11/18

Yesterday was partly sunny, windy and mild.

This morning has been sunny, still and cold.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 48 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 28 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5 mph, becoming east after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 55 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-15 mph, becoming east in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 29 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 47 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming east in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 28 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.

The NWS has issued quite a few Watch and Warning products this morning, as part of the state will see snow, and another part will see fire again today.  Snow is beginning to dissipate, but difficult travel is reported east of Albuquerque.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite image shows some cloud cover, particularly over the eastern part of the state.

The infrared satellite image shows that some of these clouds have moderately high, moderately cool tops.

The enhanced low-level water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is quite a bit of moisture in the southern part of the state, associated with the thickest band of clouds.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a saturated layer near 750 mb.  There was 0.18 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1232 m.  There was no thermal inversion above the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.4 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 15 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 81 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear over most stations (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems, though there is a moderate pressure gradient across the middle of the state.  The winds are still light, so the pressure gradient is not driving them fast.  The RAP shows that the gradient will weaken over the next six hours.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows precipitation is not expected today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR has the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley are much cooler today, perhaps 20 degrees colder.  They peak in the upper 40’s at around 00 Z.

The HRRR shows that strong winds are not expected today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that this mornings clouds will move out and mix out, yielding a clear day for most locations.  However, clouds will creep back into the state from the northwest this evening.

Today will be much colder than the last few days.  We were spoiled, and now it’s time for mother nature to remind us that winter isn’t over yet.  However, the winds have tapered off, and precipitation is unlikely for the Albuquerque metro area, so it’s not all bad.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Fire Weather, Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Winter Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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