Central New Mexico Weather: 2/6/18

Yesterday was sunny, warm and still.  It was a beautiful day.

This morning has been clear, cool, and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming west at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 27 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 69 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, becoming clear, with a low temperature of 30 F.  The winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph, increasing to 20-25 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 24 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.

The NWS has also issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for most of the state concerning gusty winds today, as well as a chance of precipitation in the northern part of the state.  The higher elevations near the Colorado border could see up to 6 inches of snow through this evening as an upper-level trough passes to our north.

The visible satellite image is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite image shows very little cloud cover over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The enhanced low-level water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is some moisture ahead of the trough over the northwestern corner of the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows that there is a thin, nearly-saturated layer around 500 mb.  There was 0.25 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2260 m.  There was a small thermal inversion above the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.8 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 13 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 64 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear over most of the state, though the northeastern corner shows some fog and cloud cover, (according to the sensors).  Winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems over the state this morning.  There is a moderate pressure gradients over the eastern plains of New Mexico.  The RAP shows that no strong pressure systems are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that some precipitation is possible today, particularly over the northern part of the state.  There is a cluster of moderate precipitation predicted by this model.

The HRRR has the high temperatures for Rio Rancho reaching into the upper-60’s around 22 Z.

The HRRR shows breezy conditions throughout the state.  The most widespread windy conditions will occur around 21 Z, and begin to taper off in the evening hours.

The HRRR shows that there will be cloud cover off and on throughout the day.  The eastern part of the state has some thin clouds at this time, and they will persist through the morning hours.  Later, some clouds and precipitation will cross the northern tier of counties in New Mexico.

Some snow will be possible at the higher elevations in the northern part of the state.

In spite of the trough, today will be mostly pleasant in the Rio Grande River Valley.  We will see some breezy conditions, which will be the only thing that will make the outdoors a little unpleasant.  Temperature-wise, it will be a nice day.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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