Model Analysis: 1/9/18-1/16/18

It is time to look at the long term GFS model data covering Central New Mexico. A Pacific cold front is moving through the state over the next 24 hours, and most of this model analysis period will be after the front has passed.

The temperature will drop over the next few days, with high temperatures in the upper 40’s F and low 50’s F.  The temperature will peak on Friday, but even this weekly high temperature will not be as high as today’s afternoon temperatures.

The low temperatures will drop into the mid-20’s F.

The dewpoint will be at its peak tomorrow morning as the Pacific front passes through the state.

Behind the frontal boundary, we will have extremely dry air. The dry air will linger throughout the weekend and into the beginning of next week.

There will be cloudy skies for the next few days as the front moves through the state. By Friday, the skies will become clear, due to the dry air behind the front. However, scattered clouds will be possible again early Sunday, clearing out again by Monday.

As the front passes, snow is possible through Central New Mexico, beginning during the early morning hours tomorrow. The precipitation will taper off by 15 Z on Thursday.

Synoptically speaking, the Pacific front is associated with an upper-level trough that can be seen on the 250 mb chart. Notice the strong upper-level winds. This trough will push through the state, and we will spend the weekend and early next week under a slight ridge.

At the 500 mb level, there is strong vorticity ahead of the trough and Pacific front. This strong vorticity is moving to the east, and the strong Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) will boost convection and precipitation chances.

At the 850 mb level, we don’t really have strong thermal advection in either direction. However, we narrowly avoid several back door cold fronts that push into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, as shown below.

Overall, we will have some winter weather tomorrow, especially at the higher elevations. The critical thicknesses remain to our north, but the combination of cooler air and an influx of moisture ahead of the Pacific front will lead to precipitation. After this front passes, we will see cooler temperatures, with little chance of precipitation.

Thank you for reading my post.

College of Dupage – Numeric Models, accessed 1/9/18.


About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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