Central New Mexico Weather: 1/9/18

Yesterday was mostly cloudy, mild and still.  I didn’t spend nearly enough time outside.

This morning has been mostly cloudy, cool and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 62 F.  The winds will from the west at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers, and a low temperature of 38 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 64 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers, and a low temperature of 39 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers, and a low temperature of 37 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.

The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the system that is approaching the state from the west.  While no hazardous weather is expected tonight, snow is possible at the higher elevations tomorrow.  Also, Wednesday afternoon will be windy, and the NWS has issued High Wind Watches for most of the state.  See the Watches and Warnings graphic below:

The visible satellite image is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite image shows that most of the state is under some cloud cover, and that most of these bands of clouds have moderately cool tops.

The enhanced low-level water vapor satellite imagery shows damp air over most of the state.  The moisture is moving in from the west and southwest, and will be the source of our rain and (high-elevation) snow late tonight.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows variable moisture below 400 mb.  There was 0.31 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1017 m.  There was a moderate thermal inversion just above the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 2.5 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 12 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 53 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows that there is a dome of high pressure near the Four Corners area, creating a slight pressure gradient.  However, the RAP shows that this high pressure will dissipate rapidly with diurnal heating, decreasing the pressure gradient.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that precipitation is unlikely through 06 Z.  Precipitation will arrive later tonight, and it is not shown by the latest model run.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR has the high temperatures somewhere around 22 Z, when we will reach the low 60’s here in Rio Rancho.

Today will be mild and partly cloudy.  There will be stronger breezes today as the Pacific system approaches the state from the west.  The daytime hours will be precipitation free, but showers are possible from the late night hours into tomorrow morning.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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